A man works on a Bowlus RV at the Bowlus factory in Oxnard, California, US, on February 23, 2024. Every Bowlus RV is hand-assembled with aircraft-grade rivets and hand-polished.

Timothy Appel reuters

The March nonfarm payrolls count will suggest hiring continued at a solid pace, although some of the labor market’s weakening fundamentals may be in greater focus when the Labor Department releases its key report Friday morning.

Jobs are expected to increase by 200,000 over the period, according to Dow Jones consensus forecasts. If true, it would mark a recession 275,000 reported in early FebruaryBut historically there is still a strong momentum.

Yet a strange thing has been happening with the jobs report recently: The initially strong numbers have diminished in subsequent estimates, raising questions about whether the jobs situation is as positive as it seems.

This will be one of several key areas of focus when the report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Strong, but how strong?

“This trend makes me wonder about the number one credibility,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade America. “So I would look for last month’s revisions to see if they would be overruled, and most likely they would be. So if you get a big number, take it with a grain of salt.”

There is some anticipation of an unexpected surprise on Wall Street: Goldman Sachs raised its initial estimate to 240,000, an increase of 25,000, after the strong stance. Private Payroll Data from ADP Profit of 184,000 in the month and other indicators are showing.

drivers of development

signs of inflation

Federal Reserve officials will keep an eye on all those factors for signs of inflationary pressures. Stocks remained under pressure this week as investors remain concerned about the direction of monetary policy.

Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% in March, up from 0.1% in February, although the annual gain is estimated at 4.1%, or 0.2 percentage points lower.

If consensus calls are correct, the Fed is unlikely to move the needle much, which is expected Start reducing interest rates gradually According to, starting from June futures market pricing Tracked by CME Group.

“Unless there’s an extremely positive or completely tragic employment report, they’re going to stay the course,” North said. “He has recently clearly put pressure on the market by saying that we are in no great hurry, inflation has not fallen below 2%.”

However, North said he expects the Fed to wait until July before starting to cut rates – contrary to current market expectations.

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