With the official liberation of Urozin, Ukraine is accelerating its advance on this axis of the front. In the next few weeks we will find out which side has more reserves, either Ukraine will be able to exploit this opening, or Russia will block it.

First, let’s take a look at the big picture overview of this part of the front:

That leftmost direction, towards Melitopol, appears to be dead in the water for the time being. Ukraine has breached the first line of defense Reply to Robotine advance in the middle. And now we have real activity on the far right side of Mariupol, where Ukraine is officially liberated the city of Urozine This week. Now, the good guys are wasting no time in consolidating their gains. this map Suriak, from a pro-Russian source that has proven to be consistently accurate:

Ukraine has systematically flattened the front line at every turn it makes, and this is no different. It is generally important to avoid any attack that might endanger the flank of any advancing javelin. And here, Ukraine is clearly interested in flattening that line as far east as Vuhledar. And to do this, Ukraine is attacking in the direction of Kermenchik:

It matters a lot. Once Ukraine reaches Kermenchik, it cuts off Russian forces at both Novodonetske to its north and Novomayorske to its northeast. They have either retreated now, or run the risk of being killed or caught on the road. And as Suriak’s map above shows, Ukraine is off to a good start on its way to Kermenchik.

Meanwhile action is also taking place West of Urozine. See the topography of that area:


The Red is high ground, with high hills rising up to the west of the Mokri Yali river valley, overlooking the road on which Ukraine is advancing. If Ukraine captures that high ground, there is no need to attack Zvitne Bazhnya directly to advance further south. And the same thing with Staromlinivka below. Capture the high ground on either side of that river valley, and you’ll have control of the fire on those settlements. it will become unstable, unsupportable maintaining any presence for Russia.

Let’s take a look at Russia’s security in that advance:

The red dots are key Russian defensive lines

The main Russian defensive line is still far down, but don’t assume that there are No The Russians take up their defense in those hills. They may not be the complex lines Ukraine will see further south, but they will contain everything we’ve already seen: Ukrainian infantry attacks on Russian trenches dug in tree lines amid open fields. This may not be a fast, efficient task. But it should give Ukraine the high-level coverage it needs for continued gains in the south.

And remember, that major line south of Staromlinivka Only The dominant defensive line in this approach, hence my favorite graphic right now, which you’ve already seen above:

Infiltrate in this direction, and Ukraine can either advance rapidly towards Melitopol, freeing its armor from endless landmines, or encircle it to the west, cutting off all those Russian defensive lines from the rear Is. None will be easy to execute or logistically support, but Ukraine is working in that direction.

Everyone is very excited about this:

guys, that’s No a good thing. There’s no reason Ukraine should waste a $120,000 GMLRS rocket on a shed and a dozen Mobiquicks on a sad firing range. Those rockets are in incredibly short supply, and they would be better used to destroy enemy artillery, supply depots, or command and control centers. And if those targets aren’t high enough to hit, use that rocket on the 100m trenchline. Ukrainians are dying one by one taking those trenches. Arm them with one of those rockets and save some of their lives.

Or, stockpile those rockets once Ukraine reaches Russia’s main defensive lines. This will do a number on those lines.

it? This is pathetic and if I were in the Pentagon, I would wonder if Ukraine has already got enough GMLRS rockets to meet their needs.

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