During the 2016 election, Donald Trump earned the nickname “teflon donFor his amazing ability to avoid any consequences for various scams. This year, prosecutors have filed four separate indictments against him for alleged state and federal crimes (the most recent, from Georgia state prosecutors, coming only tomorrow night) it is still Traditional Intelligence Political analysts say that such scandals do not hurt them – and they actively help her,

But two weeks later Trump was indictment by a federal grand jury for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, polling data shows he has been unable to convince voters that his latest boogeyman – the United States Department of Justice – really set out to capture him. Instead, polls show that although it is not seriously affecting his lead in the Republican primary, voters overall view his latest indictment as serious and believe that Trump’s actions related to the events of January 6, 2021 deserve criminal charges. and between two adults And Trump’s favorability rating drops after Republicans convicted in june For illegally possessing classified documents and refusing to return them to US authorities when asked.

Trump enjoys record-high lead in GOP primary polls

Let’s start with the positive case of “Teflon Dawn”. Their happiest news comes in the form of the 2024 Republican presidential primary elections. According to FiveThirtyEight national polling average In the primary, Trump has a record-high advantage of 38.7 percentage points over his nearest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. That’s an increase of 15 to 20 points before that, at the end of March. indictment An adult film actress is charged with allegedly falsifying business records in order to make secret payments ahead of the 2016 election in New York State. Although DeSantis began a slight decline in the polls from January to early March, the trend changed markedly after the indictment.

After that not much changed. From June 8, the day the classified document indictment was opened, until July 8, Trump’s lead in the horse racing was steady at 28 to 29 points. By the end of July, their lead had grown to 37 points, which is basically where they are today. Trump’s lead in the 2024 primary election has not changed significantly since the third indictment opened on August 1. A YouGov/The Economist poll operated August 5–8 found that 69 percent of Republicans think he did not do anything illegal surrounding the events of January 6 and only 10 percent think he should be charged with a crime. All of this means that Trump is in a strong position to weather the storm of his alleged wrongdoings in the short term.

But his favorability rating took a hit

However, the horse racing surveys don’t tell the whole story of Americans’ reactions to the allegations. Instead of Just Looking at 2024 Primary Voting, Consider Trump compatibility rating, Although there has been only modest change in how voters view Trump over the past year, there is evidence that American adults, including Republicans, have reacted differently to the various impeachments. Following his conviction on the money laundering charges, Trump’s net favorability (his favorability rating minus his unfavorability rating) increased 0.7 percentage points among Republicans over the next two weeks, from +52.9 to +53.7, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. However, his June indictment was a different story. Two weeks after federal prosecutors uncovered the classified-documents indictment, Trump’s net favorability rating among Republicans fell from +57.1 to +55.3, a drop of 1.8 percentage points.

Republicans react negatively to Trump’s second impeachment

How Donald Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) among Republicans changed after his three criminal indictments, according to the FiveThirtyEight average

indictment date impeachment day 2 weeks later Change
paid quietly to adult movie star March 30 +52.9 +53.7 +0.7
Classified Documents at Mar-a-Lago June 8 +57.1 +55.3 -1.8
Conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election 1 august +51.7 +49.1 -2.6

Source: opinion poll

Over the same time period, Trump’s net favorability rating among all adults fell from -11.9 percentage points — the high point for him in 2023 — back to -14.8, a slightly larger drop than Republicans.

Trump’s favorability rating among all adults plummeted after his impeachments

How did Donald Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) among all adults change after his three criminal indictments, according to the FiveThirtyEight average

indictment date net favorites on the day net favorite after 2 weeks Change
paid quietly to adult movie star March 30 -11.9 -14.8 -2.9
Classified Documents at Mar-a-Lago June 8 -13.6 -16.8 -2.2
Conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election August 1st -15.9 -16.2 -0.3

Source: opinion poll

These may seem like small changes, but that’s how public opinion of Trump has been historically stable, Even a shift of only 2 or 3 points in a month represents a significant change. And if we extend the time window we’re analyzing, the news gets worse for the former president: After steadily gaining ground among Republicans following his first impeachment in March, Trump’s The net favorability rating fell nearly 10 points among Republicans and 5 points among everyone. Adults between late May and late July erased most of the gains they saw in 2023. (It may be helpful to look at a slightly longer window because the classified document may be important evidence in the case.) leak on May 26, several weeks before he was indicted.) His numbers among Republicans have improved slightly since then, but not among Americans as a whole.

In the two weeks since federal prosecutors filed indictments against Trump for conduct related to Jan. 6, his net favorability rating among Republicans has declined by 2.6 percentage points. That’s down a third of all adults. Both changes are small and the lack of polling may result in noise.

Two theories may explain why the biggest change in Trump’s favorability rating occurred when Trump was accused of misusing classified material. For one, it is the only crime (so far) that was not known before this year. wall street journal informed of Much of the evidence presented in the Justice Department’s indictment was initially reported by US media outlets and a was documented in the report. House of Representatives last year. And while there was some reporting on Trump’s legal efforts to withhold classified material Continuous Coverage of the 2022 raid on Mar-a-Lago as part of the investigation, the opening of Trump’s indictment for retaining classified documents after leaving the White House, became clear for the first time the breadth of the prosecution’s allegations.

That case also deals with matters of national security, which are important to both the average American and the average Republican. About 10 percent of adults appear in weekly tracking surveys from YouGov/The Economist Tell National security is the most important issue facing America, behind only the economy (26 percent) and health care (12 percent). In his latest poll, Republicans were twice as likely as Democrats to say that national security was their most important issue. Republicans may indeed be troubled by allegations that Trump possessed and shared classified materials in violation of US law in a way they are not with other allegations against him.

The outcome could be worse for Trump in the general election

Meanwhile, Trump’s allegations could have additional political costs for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, especially if he wins the Republican nomination. GOP primary voters may not care about interference allegations, but general election voters are another story: Two studies The 2022 midterm election results found that Republican candidates for the US House of Representatives who received an endorsement from Trump or an endorsement of his electoral denial performed worse than Republican House candidates who received an endorsement from Trump. did not do. CBS/YouGov poll Held on August 2-4, A majority of adults said the impeachment against Trump was an effort to “uphold the rule of law” (57 percent) and “protect democracy” (52 percent), although more than half also said the impeachment and investigation would harm Trump. Were trying to stop the campaign (59 percent).

And of course, these are just allegations. The potential outcome from the trials of each series of allegations (which could begin in January) could be even more significant. Not only would the public see the actual prosecution, but Trump would also be forced to appear in court to draw attention away from the presidential race – which could distract from their campaign, The cost of his behavior may be clear in how difficult the next 12 months will be for Trump.

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